Illinois farmland values rose sharply from 2020 to 2023, then held steady or eased slightly through 2025, even as farmer returns fell and turned negative on many cash‑rented acres. Excellent‑productivity farmland climbed 57 percent during the upswing, then declined only 5 percent from its 2023 peak.
Cash rents followed a similar pattern, rising quickly during strong return years, then barely adjusting downward when returns weakened.
Federal programs, including crop insurance, ARC and PLC, and recent ad hoc assistance, continue to buffer income and slow cost‑structure adjustments across Illinois agriculture.
These dynamics explain why farmland prices have not retreated meaningfully and why rent negotiations remain tight heading into 2026 for our Midwest reporting state of Illinois.
Producer sentiment continues to diverge sharply depending on how farmers view the direction of land values. The March 2026 Purdue University–CME Group Ag Economy Barometer shows that only 10% of producers expect land values to decline, while 35% expect them to rise over the next 12 months . Those expecting higher values also reported stronger current conditions and more optimism about future financial performance—with a Financial Performance Index of 111 compared to 93 among those expecting declines .
High input costs remain the top concern for both groups, though the pressure is felt more intensely among producers anticipating lower land values . And when asked what’s driving land values locally, the groups split: those expecting declines pointed to net farm income, while those expecting increases cited alternative investments as the biggest influence .
Why Land Sales Bulletin’s Midwest Data Is Essential
That’s where Land Sales Bulletin provides critical clarity. By documenting finalized, completed farmland sales across 10 Midwest states, LSB delivers the ground‑truth data needed to interpret sentiment shifts in real time. When producers express optimism or caution, LSB’s county‑level sales reports show whether actual transactions reflect those expectations—or diverge from them.
In a moment when producers are split on the direction of land values, LSB’s consistent sales data helps land professionals, lenders, appraisers, and producers distinguish perception from market reality. It’s the difference between watching the weather forecast and checking the rain gauge.
New survey data from the Illinois Society of Professional Farm Managers and Rural Appraisers (ISPFMRA) points to a steady and resilient leasing environment across Illinois farmland—an important signal for landowners, operators, and investors watching the Midwest market. As one of Land Sales Bulletin’s 10 Midwest reporting states, Illinois continues to demonstrate strong rental demand even as broader price expectations soften.
Cash Rents Hold Firm in 2026 – Survey results show that professionally managed farmland maintained strong cash rent levels for 2026.
Excellent soils: Middle-third rents average $375/acre, with top-tier agreements reaching $400/acre.
Good soils: Average $325/acre.
Average soils: $273/acre.
Fair soils: $200/acre.
Despite slight declines in 2025 landlord incomes—particularly on cash‑rented acres—operators continue to compete aggressively for high‑quality ground, keeping rents elevated across productivity classes.
Leasing Performance in 2025 – Returns varied by lease structure:
Custom farming delivered the highest 2025 returns at $375/acre on excellent soils.
Cash rent averaged $300/acre.
Crop share averaged $250/acre, buoyed by strong yields and lower input costs.
These dynamics help explain why cash rents remain strong even as land values show signs of leveling.
Expectations for 2027 – Farm managers express cautious optimism:
67% expect 2027 cash rents to remain unchanged from 2026.
9% anticipate increases.
24% foresee modest softening.
Overall, the data points to a stable leasing market with limited downside pressure.
Why This Matters for Midwest Land Professionals
Illinois—one of our core reporting states—continues to set the tone for leasing trends across the Corn Belt. Strong operator demand, tight supply of high‑quality acres, and steady income expectations reinforce the importance of finalized sales and rental data when evaluating market conditions.
Illinois farmland values are entering a period of stabilization after several years of rapid appreciation. According to the latest ISPFMRA survey, most market participants expect modest softening in 2026, driven by tighter crop margins, elevated input costs, and a high‑interest‑rate environment. While 61% of respondents anticipate slight price declines, long‑term confidence remains strong, with 77% expecting higher values within five years. Transaction volumes are also cooling, and private treaty sales are regaining ground as buyers seek flexibility in a shifting market.
As one of Land Sales Bulletin’s reporting states, Illinois continues to demonstrate the importance of timely, accurate, and completed land sale data in understanding market sentiment and tracking regional trends across the Midwest.
The U.S. ag land price‑rent ratio has nearly doubled since 1998 — rising from 20 to 36 — and no single economic factor fully explains why. New farmdoc analysis shows that if the ratio had held steady, today’s cropland values would be roughly 40% lower. With land making up ~80% of U.S. farm assets, understanding the drivers behind this long‑term shift is essential for lenders, investors, and producers. Read more from Successful Farming – The Dramatic Change in U.S. Ag Land Price-Rent Ratio
This latest FarmDoc Daily Policy News Summary looks at ag land values through the first 6 months of 2025. Find the 6-Month Average Benchmark Land Values Change for our Midwest states of Wisconsin, Minnesota, North and South Dakota, Iowa, and Nebraska. Key contributors and findings include land value reports from Farmers National Company and Farm Credit Services of America. Read their full report here – Ag Land Values Mostly Stable Through First Half of 2025 – Farm Policy News
The University of Illinois Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics April 2, 2025 report has been revised. Find details to the May 2 revision in this Successful Farming Report: https://conta.cc/4k558zl
Find farmdoc daily “Outlook for Farmland Values in 2025” for our Midwest reporting state of Illinois. You can read their full report here: https://bit.ly/4g5FDfo
This second article from Farmdoc Daily, continues the study of changes in US farmland during the 21st Century. It’s focus, the changes in major farmland use categories by US region between 1997 and 2022 Census of US Agriculture. Read more here – https://bit.ly/3ZQGTOG View and Download the full report
This FarmDoc Daily article is the first of two that explore the changes in US farmland between the 1997 and 2022 Agricultural Censuses. Their first report, examines the widely-watched variables tracked by the US Census of Agriculture is land in farms. Read more here – https://bit.ly/47yhXgw Download the full FarmDoc Report
